"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsWhat might a Nathan Eovaldi signing look like Willie Mays Jersey , based on Patrick Corbin’s new deal?New,20commentsCould the World Series Hero and Alvin-native be a fit for the Astros?ByTheo GeromeDec5, 2018,2:29am CSTShareTweetShareShareWhat might a Nathan Eovaldi signing look like, based on Patrick Corbin’s new deal?Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY SportsI’ve long been focusing a lot on the Astros’ need to add starting pitching this offseason. So far, that’s mostly consisted of looking at trade candidates, like Zack Greinke or a number of Indians starters, but there are also non-Dallas Keuchel options on the free agent market as well.Yesterday, though, the biggest starter on the market made his decision. Patrick Corbin signed a six-year with the Nationals worth $140 million, knocking over the first free agent domino of the offseason. Following his breakout 2018 that saw him finish third in the NL in strikeouts and fifth in Cy Young balloting while picking up his second All-Star nomination, the 29-year-old Corbin’s leverage was at the highest it’s ever been. And yet, the Astros were never linked to the bidding for him all that strongly. The Phillies and Yankees are widely considered the runners-up in that contest. Rather, Houston seems to be focusing in on the still-unsigned Nathan Eovaldi, a Houston-area native who would become the second-best starter from Alvin High School in team history. What does the Corbin deal mean for those Eovaldi discussions? And given the numerous similarities in the two pitchers, how big would a potential contract for Eovaldi have to be? Despite the entirely unlike career paths the two have taken to get to this point (Corbin, after being a prospect in the Dan Haren-to-Anaheim trade, spent his entire Major League career as a Diamondback and picked up a pair of All-Star appearances along the way, while Eovaldi bounced around five different teams before his performance on the Red Sox in the second half and postseason got people to notice), there’s a lot more linking these two 2018 free agents than not. Both will be entering their age-29 season next year, although Eovaldi is about seven months younger. They debuted within a year of each other. Both have lost a season of their careers to Tommy John surgery, although Corbin’s was back in 2014 rather than 2017. Even their career value to date isn’t too far off. Corbin has been noticeably better, of course, but Eovaldi is still a stone’s throw away (pitching pun absolutely intended). In just under 100 more innings pitched, Fangraphs gives Corbin the edge 15.9 Wins Above Replacement to 11.6, while Baseball-Reference has them closer still at 11.4 WAR to 9.6. Those gaps aren’t nothing, but it’s still closer than their reputations might have you think.Despite being closer than you might think, though, Eovaldi’s contract is still unlikely to be all those close to Corbin’s http://www.giantsfanproshop.com/authentic-evan-longoria-jersey , for a variety of reasons. The most obvious is that, despite his success on the Red Sox, Eovaldi has still never had a season anywhere as good as Corbin’s 2018. A higher ceiling of course comes with a higher starting bid. More worrying than that, Eovaldi’s health is a lot shakier than Corbin’s. Nathan’s Tommy John back in 2017 was actually his second one, following one back in his amateur days. And even ignoring that second UCL tear, Eovaldi has just generally been less durable; as mentioned, he has about 100 fewer innings despite debuting the season before Corbin, and he still hasn’t reached 200 innings in a season (topping out at 199.2 back in 2014). Corbin, meanwhile, has reached the mark twice and has a pair of seasons in the 150-200 inning range to match him. All of that uncertainty is the primary reason that it’s hard to guess what exactly his deal will look like. He clearly won’t get a six year deal with a medical history like that, but will teams be willing to go to four or five years? Will Eovaldi himself decide to take a shorter deal (at a higher average annual value) so that he can prove his health and hit the market again at 31 or 32, possibly parlaying it into another big deal? I think that one is less likely, but I also wouldn’t totally rule it out, and it doesn’t discount the possibility of an opt-out entering the picture to accomplish something similar. Based on Corbin’s deal, though, I don’t think I would be shocked to see him getting in the range of $15 to 20 million per year for three to four years, especially given that the Astros’ main competition for his services right now is the Red Sox, with the Yankees and Phillies possibly joining in now that Corbin is off the table. That’s a high-spending group and, outside of the Phillies, the Astros’ main competition for AL dominance for at least the next year or two, which gives the decision an extra bit of importance. When Eovaldi has been healthy the last few years, he’s been a solid mid-rotation option, good for 2 to 3 WAR, which falls pretty close to that AAV. And if you think there’s the potential for more, he becomes a bargain.Is there the potential for more, though? I’m not Brent Strom, so I can’t say for sure. But I do think it’s worth noting that, in 2018, Nathan set career highs in Swing Percentage (both in and out of the zone) and swinging strikes. Had he thrown enough innings to qualify Barry Bonds Jersey , he would have been toward the top of the leaderboard in most swing stats. That’s not entirely out of line with the philosophy that Strom has utilized, although it’s worth noting that hitters basically continued to make contact against Eovaldi at the same rate as they always had even as they swung more overall, regardless of whether the pitches were in the zone or not. If he figures out how to specifically get batters to chase his stuff outside of the strike zone more, he could find another, higher gear and become the next Strom success story. The big question in signing him would be whether the Astros think he has that type of improvement in him still. Even if he doesn’t, something as high as $80 million over 4 years wouldn’t be too bad if you were confident he could stay off of the DL for most of it, especially for a team that will need innings in 2019 and beyond. Both of those are big “ifs” in their own way, of course, but it’s hard not to imagine the potential upside on a deal like this, and given the Corbin deal, something in that neighborhood is probably what it will take to bring the Alvin-native home. Arte finds a button to push in his talks with Anaheim"The worst thing in the world when you are trying to negotiate any kind of deal with another party, is when that other party knows full well that you have zero alternatives other than to take the deal they are offering.Arte needs to negotiate with Anaheim. He needs Anaheim to know that he has other options. Anaheim knows that Tustin is not another option. Anaheim knows that Irvine is not another option. Anaheim knows that downtown LA, the Inland Empire, Las Vegas, or even Portland are not serious options. He has waited out the city government that was stuffing him into a corner. He now needs to start talking to the new government. Which is why Arte needs an option. The best option he has dug up is the oldest one. Long Beach. See Jessica. The Angels were supposed to start there, but Long Beach said no back then and Anaheim said yes. (Actually, Long Beach almost got the Los Angeles Angels back in the early 40’s. But then Pearl Harbor happened. Look it up.) Arte has a thing to take into his talks withe Anaheim. Long Beach is now the willing victim in the age-old maneuver of pro sports franchises to get a better deal back home. Scott Boras would be pleased.Let’s move on with Back-To-Spring-Training-HaloLinks:A Little Bit Of Angels NewsJustin Bour simply has one of those names built for baseball and punnage...........Monster Jam is over. The rains are (mostly) now falling in the plains. We are 4 weeks away from moving ST to Angel Stadium. So it’s that time of year again, when they have to completely rebuild the baseball field..........Felix Pena had himself a decent birthday yesterday. 3 innings, 1 hit, 3 K’s. Good for early Spring.............Zack Cozart, though. Blech. His left shoulder is not fine and he is day to day. This is the same shoulder that underwent surgery last year. He thinks he can play through it this year...........Unsurprisingly, Luc Roy is delighted that MLB is stepping in and making his job easier............Everywhere In BaseballFiveThirtyEight takes a look at the game time problem, fixating on the parade of relievers from the 6th inning on, and realizes that the crux of this issue is that there is a never-ending supply of One-inning, Max-effort, guys (“OMGs”). And their belief is that the best way to curtail this parade is to limit the number roster spots that can be used on pitching staff. Immediately, being as I am an Angel fan, I see a problem. They do allow for position payers to still pitch, but (and this is a BIG but): “...they wouldn’t be allowed to pitch to a greater number of batters than the number of plate appearances they’d recorded so far on the season as hitters.”. Sorry Madison Bumgarner Jersey , guys, but this wages war on the potential rise of two-way players such as Shohei Ohtani. (And look at me, an American League DH guy advocating for the development of pitchers who can hit for themselves! I’ll bet nobody has thought about that curve ball yet.)...........Welcome to The Law Of Unintended Consequences. Pitch clocking baseball creates the opportunity for somebody to think about hos to turn that to their advantage. The first such idea comes to us from reddit. Very, very clever. If I were a manager, I would wait until a game where Rob Manfred was in attendance and this is how I would work in every reliever............Clayton Kershaw is getting shut back down. This is ungood for baseball...........The Rockies like their Coors Light, and their Bud Black..........I always get a little giddy when an issue within MLB falls outside into the real world, and beyond the control of the Commissioner’s Office and franchise lawyers to dictate all terms and conditions. it’s probably just me, but I have long felt as though MLB chooses to behave as their own legal mini nation state. Too long living under the umbrella of a Congressional antitrust exemption. So when I readthis update on the Dexter Fowler lawsuit against the White Sox and MLB, where Fowler’s career was ruined the very day it began and all because of a hidden electrical box, I giggle. The real-world judge pretty much just told MLB/ChiSox lawyers that they are idiots, and the protection they think they are hiding behind is stupid..........The bottom line summary here is dead on: players should ply hardball with teams right now. Just because Front Offices are using new methods to value and devalue players, that doesn’t mean that they carry that weight into an arbitration hearing. Players who go all the way through an arb hearing are faring much better than those who fold.......... Ex Blue Jay Troy Tulowitzki stepped up to bat in MFY pinstripes for the first time, ironically facing his ex-Blue Jay teammates. Two pitches in Marcus Stromon serves up a meatball and Tulo goes yard. Extra motivation. Tulo feel vindicated already. But I suspect that what with his recent history over these past 6 years, this is a tweet and a quote that might not age well when we get out to August/September..........This will be the Year of Baby Vladdie. And we will see the lies and anti-marketing levers pulled by Toronto. Something to grill Rob Manfred on if you ever get the chance. Everybody knows that service time manipulation goes on. Even the players. But nobody comes forth with a solution.............Nevada Gaming Commission to MLB: “Thank you for your interest but, no, we shall not be paying any attention to your whining.”..........You are thinking it. I will say it. Brian Cashman loves having Andy Pettitte on board to help players on the physical side of the same. Because Andy knows where the needles go?..........Hunter Strickland was victimized by his own temper. And that’s what finally taught him to get a grip. As in “Oh. So THIS is the kind of pain and suffering U have been subjecting humanity to all my life?”..........Just an LAA Public Service Announcement: This is the new Mariners weapon on the mound. And that is none other than THE Joey “On Base Machine” Votto looking stupid..........Hot StoveIt looks like the Yankees just took themselves out of the Mike Trout Sweepstakes, signing their own young SF, Aaron Hicks, to a 7-year, $70 million extension.......... And the Yankees, who recently did this with youngster Luis Severino, are now targeting the same for Dellin Betances. Is this going to be the new land rush for all franchises, where the Yankees are way out in front of the coming wave? if so, I would think that teams would all want to get in on this before the CBA changes all their rules at the earlier end of player career..........The Dodgers now in the Bryce Harper chase......Pedro Gomez noticed a peculiar thing at the Dodgers camp just hours after this news broke. They appear to be serious.....So look now for the Phillies to scare themselves into doing that stupid thing they promised to do earlier this winter. A classic Boras end game gambit.........In any event, it may be that this opera ends this week...........Maybe even as soon as today..........The Duffle Bagreddit was pretty productive for me yesterday. Here is pitching machine versus baserunner..........also from reddit, we got this glorious math-centric player graphic forArquimedes Caminero. (For those who don’t get it, go here.).........You keep doing YOU , kid!..........